Some friends and I went to the movies last night to see Thor.  We were all rather excited because the movies featuring the Avengers started off very well with Iron Man.  To add to the excitement is a pretty strong cast around the relatively unknown titular character including Anthony Hopkins, Natalie Portman, Rene Russo, Kat Dennings, and Stellan Skarsgard.  Throw in Kenneth Branaugh as the director and it was hard to believe that you wouldn’t at least get some strong dialog and acting performances even if the story ended up being a bit comic book formulaic.

What we ended up seeing was a real stinker of a movie.  The acting was terrible.  The story and character development were worse.  The villain (Loki) who is probably one of the most interesting characters in all of ancient mythology was the worst thing a villain could be – uninteresting.  Needless to say, we did not leave the theater happy.

The reason I bring this up is that there are some direct lessons for the final weekend of the fantasy season.  There are situations that seem like they should work out but what we can never know is how motivated the players are.  My overriding impression of Thor was that the “A list” actors who were there figured that their names, the Marvel brand, the success of recent comic book adaptations, and the special effects would guarantee a success.  Knowing this, or at least assuming it, they pretty much mailed in their performances.  Seriously, I think Natalie Portman should lose her Oscar for being almost unwatchable in this thing.

Applying the same logic to the matches on the final weekend of the season, we find that a great deal of the Premier League has exactly nothing to play for this weekend.  This means we’re likely to know less about who will start, who will try hard, and who will be more focused on packing for vacation.  If you want to know what I’m talking about, here is a real Tweet from @Ph1lj0nes “Picking up a few essentials for the summer breaks away.  Flip flops are on the agenda at the moment.”  And HIS team is facing a serious battle to survive relegation even if his future is in the Premier League regardless of where Rovers find themselves next season.

My point is that under the best of circumstances it is difficult to know who is going to perform and who isn’t.  When you take away obvious motivation it gets even more difficult.  Some of the guys you expect to do well week in and week out will do what you expect absent any real purpose because they have personal agendas like personal pride or boosting their statistics.  Others will either be rotated unpredictably or just go through the motions on the way to the airport of first tee.

As a result, my strategy is to try to stack my teams with players who, at least presumably, have something to play for.  Well, other than Mr. Jones for obvious reasons.

The interesting thing about the last day of the year this season is that there is no incredibly obvious team.  That is, there isn’t a home team with a ton on the line playing against an opponent that doesn’t have anything to play for.

Given that, here is a quick run-down of the next best things:

• Wolves vs. Rovers – Both teams are fighting for their lives with Wolves being at home and riding some solid momentum I’m favoring their players more so than Rovers. Probably not a high scoring affair but I could see 2-0 or 2-1 for Wolves.
• Blackpool @ United – Don’t get me wrong, I’m not betting on Blackpool’s defense regardless of whom SAF rolls out to start.  I will, however, l bet on Blackpool scoring some goals whether they win, lose or draw on Sunday.  If nothing else this will be the match to watch.
• Wigan @ Stoke – Could Wigan come back from the dead? Seems unlikely but I’m betting they, like Blackpool, will score a few goals regardless of the outcome.  It will also help that Stoke have to be a bit demoralized after two straight losses to Citeh.
• Citeh @ Bolton – I think Citeh would like to lock down automatic qualification and Bolton, other than doing what everyone other than United has been doing and beating Arsenal, have been pretty terrible over the last couple of months (where have you gone Stuart Holden?).
• Arsenal/Liverpool/Spurs – Honestly, I’m not sure what to make of any of these three – Arsenal are just a disaster and neither Champions League aspirant seems too excited about the prospect of the Europa Cup.  My sense is that all three represent slight value but not a ton.

Forwards

• Tevez – His motivation will be two-fold.  His team is competing for direct entry into the group stage of the Champions League and he has a personal battle with cross-town rival Berbatov for the Golden Boot.  Seems like motivation enough for me.
• Ba – If he starts (which is in minor doubt due to the racism controversy) he seems like a player with plenty of motivation as he auditions for a new job.  West Ham as a group may not be terribly motivated but I like Ba’s chances against an equally uninspired Sunderland team that is also missing almost a full squad.
• DJ Campbell – Back in the goals with a brace last weekend for Blackpool and potentially going against a defense that will include Johnny Evans – seems like a solid recipe for scoring.
• Fletcher – With rumors swirling that Doyle has had a recurrence of the injury that kept him out for the majority of the run-in, Fletcher will be back to leading the line against a poor Blackburn team.
• Rodallega – Wigan will be desperate and he came up with a solid fantasy performance last weekend – seems likely that he’ll do it again.
• Berbs – This should really be held until Friday when we know whether he is likely to start or not but I felt like it would be irresponsible not to mention that there’s a great chance that he’ll play and score enough to win the most improbably Golden Boot in the history of the league.

Midfielders

• Adam – He just keeps justifying his place as THE fantasy player of the season, especially in the PremerLeague.com format where his price still isn’t crazy.  Throw in the motivation of captaining a team fighting to stay up (even if Adam is not likely to be around next year regardless) and you have the must-have player of the week.
• Puncheon – Keeping with the Blackpool theme, I think of him as Adam-light (and a great bet to improve dramatically as a fantasy player next season if Adam moves on and BPL stay up).
• N’Zogbia – His performance last season reminded me of long-time blog punchline Mark Viduka – his performances always improve when he feels like he is auditioning for his next job/contract.  Seems like something you might want to get in on.
• Larsson – With Bentley out because he can’t play against the team that owns his rights, you have to assume Larsson will be integral to whatever attacking Birmingham does – the only downside is that even with their survival in the Prem on the line you wonder how much attacking that might be.
• Toure – Yaya is an odd player – I don’t think there’s any way he could have been viewed as an overwhelming success this season given his price in the transfer market (the real one) and the fact that his game isn’t very flashy.  That said, he’s quietly been one of the more effective fantasy midfielders around this season.
• Zenden – We put a lot of stock on players who take free kicks for their teams, especially defenders and midfielders.  This gives them improved chances for assists and maybe even the occasional goal.  With all of the injuries at Sunderland, Zenden finds himself taking more and more and you get those opportunities for a bargain price.  If you’ve seen Sunderland play in the last couple weeks, you’ll know he’s been close…and that you should get a life because they’ve been unpleasant to watch.

Defenders

• S. Ward – Assuming Doyle is indeed hurt then Ward is a great option as an inexpensive defender playing as a withdrawn striker.  Great potential value as he is also at home and playing against Blackburn.
• Smalling – I think Blackpool will score more than one goal but if you want to balance out your investment in their attack then Smalling (likely to play) is a relatively low-cost way to do so.
• Elokobi – Not the most fashionable fantasy player ever but a reasonable bet for both a clean sheet and potential attacking points for a reasonable price.
• Craddock – But likely only if you’re a Wolves supporter and are looking to pay homage to his extremely well-struck goal that was instrumental in last weekend’s huge win.  He is cheap if you don’t have the above reasons.

Goalkeepers
Hard for me to guess where a clean sheet, or even a win, might come from this weekend which means that I’m unlikely to invest heavily in my goalkeeper or use a valuable transaction on one.  Joe Hart is the best bet and my guess is that a high percentage of players already have him which should work out fine.  Other inexpensive options if you need to make a change include Robbo, Hennessey, and Al-Habsi.

Captains

• Tevez – You have to like his motivation combined with his skill and his form.
• Berbs – The story of this odd Premier League season might not be complete without a Golden Boot for a player who hasn’t started an important match down the stretch for his club.
• Adam – Until proven otherwise, he’s probably the safest bet to produce points that would then get doubled.

With the NFL Draft coming up this (Thursday) evening, I’m going to turn from issues specific to fantasy games to something that strikes at the core of the game.  The NFL Draft is an important day on the US sporting calendar because it represents hope and make no mistake, the reason that the NFL is wildly popular is that every team has hope.  This reason this finds its way into a column about the Premier League is that one wonders how long the league can continue to sustain its position in its core (UK) market when the majority of teams have no hope.

Internationally speaking, the Premier League will continue to grow revenue streams because those of us who weren’t born into a club affiliation by virtue of inheritance or geography can pick a club that DOES have a chance year in and year out.  There is little risk in this strategy and because we weren’t born into our affiliation there is also little shame in changing it from time-to-time as the balance of power shifts in the league.

The problem that the league faces and doesn’t really seem too intent on solving is what to do about the core fans that made the league what it is today?  What hope does the league offer to supporters for clubs like Fulham, Sunderland, Everton, or Blackburn?  The NFL, through the draft and salary cap, ensures that fans in outposts like Green Bay and Pittsburgh that aren’t known as major markets have a chance to compete for a championship.  The Premier League makes no such prevision.

Certainly, there are plenty of reasons that it is easier for the NFL than it would be for the Premier League with European law and the presence of alternative top tier leagues in other countries being the biggest.  Still, that won’t be of much comfort as a new generation of supporters of mid-table teams wonders why they are paying incredibly high ticket prices with no hope of EVER winning a championship.  As an Eagles fan in the NFL I haven’t experienced my team winning a Super Bowl in my lifetime but I retain hope because they have come close and there is nothing systemic preventing them from achieving that goal.  A takeover by a super-rich tycoon willing to lose gobs of money aside, fans of mid-table Premier League teams can’t say the same.

I’d love to hear from die-hard supporters of perpetual mid-table teams “what do you consider a good season?” Finishing in the top half? In the Europa Cup? Beating a “big club” or derby rival?  Is that enough to keep you going to matches or glued to the TV on days when your team plays a team at the bottom of the table?  Major League Baseball has the same issue as the Premier League and there is great danger of the game slowly dying in towns like Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Oakland.

As NFL teams and their fans prepare to renew hope this evening and over the weekend, I wonder what the fans of mid-table teams in the Premier League will content themselves with as the summer comes?  Will it be enough to keep future generations of fans interested after 20 or 30 or 40 years in a row with no hope of a significant accomplishment?

Schedule

Where we evaluate the match-ups that improve the value of the players involved versus the ones that leave the player’s value unchanged.  The first note is to mention that all teams are back to having one match only this week.

Real Value

• MAC vs. WHU – I’m not wild about Manchester City without Tevez but West Ham have clearly lost what momentum they had now that they’re playing a tougher schedule.
• Stoke @ Blackpool – Another team that seems destined for the drop going up against a solid team riding some solid momentum.  I’m particularly interested in Stoke attackers – seems less likely that Blackpool will be shut out.
• Fulham @ Sunderland – I’m not sure if any of Sunderland’s players are still healthy – my only hesitation here is that Fulham aren’t that great on the road.  I’m more interested in Fulham’s defense since Sunderland are missing all of their forwards.
• Liverpool vs. NUFC – Predicting how NUFC will perform has made me nervous all season and this week is no different but Liverpool are playing well and are at home which makes me feel good about their chances.

Stay Away

I hate trying to figure out where the points are going to come from when teams at the top of the table face off so I’m staying away from Arsenal vs. Man United and Chelsea vs. Spurs.  I suspect that United and Chelsea will win but betting on their premium players is especially risky since the opposition isn’t the typical mid-table pushovers.

Forwards

• Suarez – The headlines will be about Carroll playing his old team but Suarrez is The Man and consistent best bet for Liverpool.
• K Jones – More a “stick with him” than anything else but he’s a streaky scorer and he’s on 3 in 3 matches and playing against opposition that can’t keep the ball out of the net.
• Odemwingie – The difference between WBA being safe and fighting relegation – he’s been a revelation.  Villa coming to town is hardly intimidating enough that it would dissuade you from having him in your side.
• Beckford – Since I really don’t like any of City’s forwards, I’m recommending Beckford at Wigan over Balotelli (too unpredictable) and Dzeko (still not necessarily a starter).

Midfielders

• Silva/Toure/Johnson – None of them have lived up to the hype but I’d suggest picking your two favorite of the three and assuming that West Ham’s visit will improve their outlooks.  Also a good idea to prepare ahead of time for next week’s two-gamer.
• Dempsey – Easy to pick the guy coming off the brace but somehow that made Dempsey Fulham’s all-time scorer in the Premier League so who else would you bet on to score against teetering Sunderland.
• Gardner – Still quietly having a strong fantasy season and gets to play at home to Wolves who have looked worse and worse as the season finishes up.
• Meireles – Same logic as Suarez – he’s been exceptional during the Liverpool revival.
• Pennant – With Eth hurt, Pennant will likely take all of the free kicks which will improve his chances for assists against goal-friendly Blackpool even further.

Defenders

• Kolarov – Solid chance of both clean sheet and attacking points against WHU and he’s still fairly cheap.
• Kompany – More expensive and you’re probably over your limit of City players but he’d be my second choice.
• Hangeland – With no forwards to face off against you have to like Fulham’s chance of a clean sheet even if the match is on the road.
• Ridgewell – Same logic as Hangeland since it appears that Wolves forgot where the goal is away from home.

Goalkeepers

• Hart – A no-brainer between this week’s match-up and preparing yourself to have him next week for the two matches.
• Schwarzer – If you have him coming off of last week and don’t want to use a transfer here.
• Foster – Home against Wolves seems like as solid a bet as you can find.

Captains

• Suarez – I can’t say I’m in love with any of the choices for captain but Suarez is the best combination of a great match-up and exceptional talent.
• Jones – He isn’t as talented but he’s in form and playing against Blackpool.
• Dempsey – Also in form and playing against a crumbling Sunderland team (don’t let last weekend’s result fool you – it was at home against Wigan).

Only five more match weeks to go and we are firmly in “maximize points at all costs” territory. The time to hold on to players while they are injured or slumping is gone. If the first five weeks of the season are all about making strategic investments in players you want for the long haul, the last five are about getting over your pre-conceived notions about the season and players you have been holding onto dearly and make some very near-sighted decisions. With only five weeks left, near-sight is the only kind available. With that in mind, here are some observations about the remaining schedule that may help you make some of those tactical decisions:

• After this coming week when four teams – Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, and Wolves – play twice, there two teams that have more matches than the rest to close out the season – Spurs and Manchester City who both play twice during matchweek 36.
• Buy: Manchester City look particularly appealing with an extra match PLUS a relatively easy run-in that features Blackburn, West Ham, Everton, Spurs, Stoke, and Bolton.  Spurs are the only top quality team there and they have them as part of a two match week.
• Sell: Everton on the other hand are a bit of a mess.  They have a rash of injuries AND they have to contend with Man United, City, and Chelsea as part of their final five matches.  Throw in a resurgent West Brom team and Wigan is their only relatively easy match and even that is on the road.
• Buy: Liverpool have three of their remaining five matches at home with the only exceptionally challenging match being Spurs trip to Anfield on the second to last week of the season.  The balance features BRM, NUFC, @FUL, and @AST.  Not a bad run in to bet on.
• Risky Buy: Wolves have looked to be falling apart since the international break but if you wanted to take a risk to try to make up some ground then you might want to give a try to a team with it all to play for and the following closing schedule: FUL, @STO, @BRM, WBA, @SUN, and BLA.  Not exactly murderer’s row.
• Tough Call: The upside on Spurs is that they have more matches down the stretch which should figure as more points.  The downside is that even after today’s match against Arsenal, they close with WBA (who have been strong), @CHE, BPL, @MAC, @LIV, and then BRM.  Outside of the Blackpool match that’s a brutal run-in.  Especially given the added pressure of trying to qualify for the Champions League while their rivals have much easier schedules.
• Sell: Aston Villa have had a rough season with the worst part being that the last five weeks aren’t likely to help. They start the run-in with solid opposition in STO and @WBA before a potential break in the form of WIG before it gets tough again @ARS and home against LIV.  Not as bad as Everton’s last five weeks but certainly not the time to invest in a team that has struggled for most of the season anyway.

Now that I’ve given you as long a view into the future as makes sense, here is your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis for Matchweek 34:

The Schedule

All you really need to know about the schedule this week is that there are four teams with two matches: Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, and Wolves.  Now, these aren’t exactly the powerhouses of the league so you may only want cherry pick a few players from each team rather than loading up like we (hopefully) all did with Chelsea this past week.  Here’s a quick breakdown of the quality of the two matches for each:

• Bolton (ARS, @FUL) – Tough home match and an away match against a team that doesn’t give away many points in their home stadium.  Not a lot to love there but still two matches.
• Fulham (@WOL, BOL) – Away match against a struggling opponent and a home match against an average opponent.  Fulham haven’t had what you’d call a bad result (home loss or away loss to a bad team) since their Boxing Day capitulation to WHU at Craven Cottage.  I like the potential here.
• Stoke (@AST, WOL) – Stoke has been the epitome of a mid-table team.  They have a middling match at Villa and what SHOULD be a win against Wolves at home.  The hard part with Stoke is knowing where the fantasy points might come from with so many erratic fantasy scorers like Kenwyne Jones and John Carew leading the line.
• Wolves (FUL, @STO) – If this were a good or even mid-table team with this schedule, you’d be pretty interested but given that this is a team fighting to stay up, you’ll probably want to be cautious.

Of the one-gamers, Chelsea is the obvious play with a home match against West Ham on the schedule.  Obviously there are cheaper options out there but since you probably have a lot of Chelsea in your line-up from this week, the default question you might want to be asking yourself is “what’s the case for making a change?”

Forwards

• Zamora – I like him as an option more than I like either of the Bolton forwards (Sturridge and Elmander) because the match-ups are just that much better for Fulham.
• Sturridge – Unlike other formats, the Premier League game is such that his price hasn’t skyrocketed since his loan to Wanderers and subsequent hot streak.  This makes him a great bargain at 5.3 even if the match-ups aren’t spectacular.
• SEB – With two matches and a price of 4.9, he’s a great bargain.  If you compare him to say Elmander and Kenwyne Jones (combined 2 goals and 2 assists since New Years Day) I think you’ll like him even more despite his match-ups and the team he plays for.
• Drogba – He seems to be on the comeback trail after a long barren spell.  Not saying he’ll completely explode but if you’re going for a one-gamer at forward, he’s the one to go for in my book.

Midfielders

• Dempsey – Middling price (7.3) with star production and two matches.  Can’t argue with that.
• Walters – Etherington is the logical play and not a bad one but Walters is playing forward most of the time and listed as a midfielder in the Premier League game which makes him very attractive.  That he’s also in form and inexpensive also help the case.
• Jarvis – Far and away Wolves’ best fantasy player to the extent that he’s a legitimately strong fantasy midfielder whose scoring has been fairly consistent throughout the season.  Another inexpensive one.
• One-gamers – Sticking with FloMal, Lamps, or Nani given their match-ups isn’t a bad call at all.  Nani seems due for a big match.

Defenders

• Hangeland/Fulham – Would it surprise you to realize that you see three Fulham defenders – Hangeland, Hughes, and Baird – on the scoring charts before you run into a single player from any of the other two-match candidates? I have two points.  First, if you’re going to pick up a two-game defender he should be from Fulham with Hangeland significantly better than the alternatives.  Second, you probably shouldn’t be counting on any of the other teams for defenders.
• Smalling – Still great value with United returning home where they don’t lose.
• ACole – Given all of the relative bargains above, you should have money for a premium defender.
• Vidic – See ACole.
• Kolarov – A cheap way to bet on a City clean sheet against struggling Rovers.

Goalkeepers

• Schwarzer – Best combination of match-ups and performance over the course of the season.
• Jaaskelainen – Despite the fact that his defenders are fantasy laggards, Jussi has been pretty solid all season and combined with the two matches isn’t a horrible bet if you want a two-gamer in net and have run out of spots eligible for Fulham players.
• Hart – For those looking to “stand pat” and have Hart already, his match-up at Rovers seems like a solid bet for a clean sheet and strong fantasy points despite only one match.
• Cech – Another potential holdover from your team last week that retains his value and helps you spend the money not spent on attackers this week.

Captains

• Dempsey – Call me a homer if you’d like but I’ll take 160+ minutes of Dempsey as my captain over more glamorous choices from bigger one-match teams.
• Zamora – Can you tell I’m going “all in” on Fulham this week? What can I say, I like their match-ups a lot.
• SEB/Sturridge – Call it a toss-up between someone of modest talents, decent match-ups, and a lot on the line (SEB) and someone with burgeoning talent, excellent form, tricky match-ups, and a team that has settled into the middle of the table.  If you’re the sort who believes in talent over all then I’d say Sturridge is your man.  If you believe in desperation then SEB would be your choice.

So what’s to become of Chelsea? In my mind, their situation is to an extend unprecedented and will make for exceptional theatre over the next couple of seasons.  The rumors are flying of a “clear out” over the summer which for me would be a huge mistake.  I recognize that such headlines are generally written to entice people to buy at the newsstand or click on a link.  That said, you can never really tell with an owner who operates his real life club about the same way the average fantasy manager runs their fantasy team – with little real understanding of what makes a winning team in the real world.

You may recall that I wrote a few weeks back about how Arsenal’s big mistake in transitioning from “The Invincibles” to “The Next Generation” was that they cut ties to the previous generation with little overlap and even less shared experience with what it takes to succeed.  By contrast each generation of Manchester United’s teams have had significant overlaps with only a portion of the team turning over at any given time.  The younger guys win together with the older ones and as they enter their prime they can pass it along to the younger ones.

So what will Chelsea do?  They have only really had one “core” of winning players.  That core, made up of Cech, Terry, Cole, Essien, Lampard, and Drogba, has won a Premier League title as recently as last season but the question is whether you think that enough of that “next generation” is in place for them to have overlapped with.

Let’s evaluate how they stand by unit as they look to transition to their next wave of potential title winners.

Goalkeepers

There really is no back-up plan here.  Not sure why that is but while United have overlapped a number of candidates – Kusczcak, Foster, etc. – to be prepared once EvdS leaves, Chelsea do not seem ready for Cech to depart or decline in any way shape or form.

Defenders

The defense is in very solid shape with Alex, Luiz, and Ivanovic ready to take over from Terry and Carvalho.  Terry probably has a couple more seasons in a role that becomes more and more limited by injury and ineffectiveness.  They would certainly do well to improve on their wing options but they are certainly no worse than average with Zhirkov and Bosingwa/Ivanovic/Ferreira as their main options in the wide spots.

Midfielders

This has been a big issue for a number of years.  As the Mourinho teams fade from glory Essien is really the only player who seems young enough to bridge the gap at a high level.  Lampard is fading quickly.  Mikel never really got started.  Ramires looks like Nani did two or three seasons ago (in other words, he’s got a lot of developing to do).  The big question is around Malouda.  He seems to be the definition of a streaky player – he’ll be exceptional for month-long stretches but then disappear for similar stretches.  That’s OK for a second tier player (think Ljungberg from the old Arsenal teams) but a player like that can’t be your best attacking midfield player.  This position has been a worry for Chelsea for a while now and it needs attention quickly before the chance to pass along a winning tradition goes away.

Forwards

Hard to tell what to make of things here.  Drogba and Anelka are clearly fading and on their way out – how quickly is hard to tell, especially with Drogba.  Torres, the man who was supposed to be the answer as the star man, needs to show something quickly or risk losing the confidence of the fans and his teammates.  Sturridge is lighting it up at Bolton but you can never tell how a player will react to expectations growing.  The road is littered with players who could score for mid-table teams but couldn’t get it done at the pressure increased (see Bent, Darren; Saha, Louis; Duff, Damien, Wright-Philips, Shawn, etc.).

With three of their four position groups potentially at risk – it seems like time for Chelsea to start making some decisions around who will make up the core of their next championship winning generation.  Time is running out to ensure that those who know how to win pass along their knowledge and attitude.

We now take you to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis:

The Schedule
Where this week we break down who plays twice and who doesn’t play at all to help you make some decisions as the season starts to wind down.

Two-gamers

• Chelsea – Not only do they play twice but they play fairly weak opponents in West Brom (away) and Birmingham (home).  If you have a limited number of slots for Chelsea players, I have to say I like their defenders/goalkeeper more in this situation than the attackers.
• Arsenal – Arsenal also have one home match and one away but theirs are a bit more difficult with Liverpool (home) seeming to be exactly the sort of team that will hurt the Gunners with a dominant aerial presence in Carroll and a crafty partners in Suarez and Meireles.  The second match is the North London Derby with Spurs desperate for a win.  Certainly not a walk in the park for Arsenal and I’d favor their attackers over their defenders.
• Birmingham – Their first match – home to Sunderland – looks pretty enticing as Sunderland limps toward the finish line.  The problem is the second match where a trip to the Bridge looks daunting for attack-challenged Brum.  I’d consider this to be more like 1.5 matches as opposed to 2.

No Matches

Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, Wolves, and City.  We’re at the time of year when I’d be looking to get rid of as many of these guys as you can.  The time to hold player that you have at discounts has gone – live for the moment and make sure you’re getting the most out of your line-up.

One-Gamers

Of the one-gamers, Everton and Blackpool are the most interesting to me as they are both home and facing bad teams (Rovers and Wigan respectively).

Forwards

• Drogba – the best of a bad lot for Chelsea recently but the match-ups are good ones.
• RvP – He’s been playing better than Drogba and seems likely to get his points regardless of how things turn out for Arsenal across these two matches.
• Carroll – If you’re going for a one-gamer, he’s my bet against an Arsenal defense that is rotten at defending big forwards.
• Beckford – My back-up option from among the one-gamers

Midfielders

• Lampard – Watching last weekend, Malouda looked the MUCH more likely to make an impact but over two matches against lousy teams, I want Chelsea’s PK-taker in my team.  I see at least one, if not two PK goals plus whatever else he produces from the run of play.
• Walcott – I see Wenger trying to speed things up and Walcott is the man to do it.  This is even more important with Cesc and Nasri fading from fantasy relevance in the second half of the season.
• Wilshere – Inexpensive in most leagues, he’s on the verge of a breakout (I know, I’ve been saying it all season but this is the time to pick him up with two matches worth of opportunity)
• Gardner – Birmingham is a slow and (occasionally) steady type of team and Gardner is the personification of that – with doubt all around him with Zigic, Martins, and Bentley all in various stages of coming back from injuries Gardner has quietly been an effective fantasy player and my bet for value from Birmingham’s two matches.
• Adam – If you’re going for a one-gamer I assume you already have him but I’d keep him or get him if you’ve run out of slots for two-gamers.

Defenders

• Luiz – Best combination of potential and price – his tendency to dive in and get one bad YC per match is a worry though.
• ACole – The best producer on the team whose defense has the highest potential this match week.  He’s expensive but worth it this time around.
• Smalling – Very likely to continue starting in the league with Rio held out for Champions League engagements.
• Johnson – Another quiet point-producer from Birmingham – price is great and you have two cracks at points and one of them is a very solid chance for a clean sheet.

Goalkeepers

• Cech – really a no-brainer of a choice.  I’d take him over Drogba to be honest if I were choosing premium-priced players from Chelsea.  I like Chelsea’s chances of two clean sheets more than I like their forwards’ chances of really breaking out.
• Foster – All he does is put up great fantasy numbers while toiling for a poor team.
• Howard – Everton are pushing farther and farther up the table and Howard’s fantasy performances have been looking up – solid bet that he’ll get the clean sheet points at home against goal-shy Rovers.

Captains

• Cech – I generally don’t like captaining a keeper but he’s a great bet for a lot of points
• RvP – The best bet among attackers to do well over the course of two matches.
• Lamps – Did I mention I’m expecting some goals from the spot from Lamps?

I don’t know where you live. I don’t know what the laws are or what is generally accepted versus what is not. I don’t know if gambling is legal where you are, or at least overlooked if it is on a small scale.  What I DO know is that the Premier League season is a long one and for fantasy managers, this is the time of year when it gets really hard to keep yourself motivated.  Unless, of course, you’ve sweetened the action with some financial incentive.

For the first six or seven months of the season it is easy to stay motivated to actively manage your fantasy team.  You know you’ll be watching matches that mean something in the league and it will be even better if you have a fantasy team to add to the excitement in matches that you might otherwise not care so much about.  The sad fact is that unless you’re fascinated by the relegation battle – and it is fascinating this year – there is less and less motivation to stay glued to the Premier League with each passing week.

I think we’d all agree that United sewed up the title this past weekend if they hadn’t already done so.  Arsenal’s inability to put away a modestly talented Rovers side saw to that.  So that’s the title race.  For an Arsenal supporter like me the last month has made the final eight matches of the season MUCH less interesting.

Maybe you can get excited for the race for the remaining Champions League spots between Spurs, City and Chelsea.  Even that has lost some edge with Spurs lagging in the league and the number of games remaining dwindling, I have a hard time seeing Spurs putting up enough of a fight to make that interesting.  I give that about the same chance I gave Arsenal of winning their entire remaining schedule going into last weekend and claiming the title – remote.

So how do you keep yourself motivated in a world where the season lasts nine or ten months and the important outcomes can be decided with upwards of a quarter of the season remaining? Make side bets!  Neither the Premier League nor Yahoo! offer much in the way of prizes.  There are scattered derivative competitions that are offered by sites like the one you are reading that offer some motivation but my guess is that most of you already know how that will be turning out for you.  No, the best way to keep up a guaranteed level of motivation is to create your own mini-competition with friends.

As an example, one side bet I have engaged in for years with my Yahoo! fantasy team is with my blogging partner Jeremy.  He and I bet a Premier League replica jersey of the winner’s choice paid for by the loser in a direct competition between our two teams.  Our skill levels in the Yahoo! game are pretty similar and I can say for certain that our races for the replica shirt have been much more interesting than the title race in the real Premier League for most of the last ten years.

In fantasy MLS a group of longtime friends has created a really bad trophy from a Transformers action figure that gets sent across the country to the winner of our league.  It might not seem like much motivation but being able to call your team the Transformer Home Team (i.e., the reigning champions) in the following season certainly makes it easier to stay focused on MLS for a while into the autumn even after the Premier League has taken back most of our attention.

My overall message is that the Premier League season is a long grind for fantasy managers and whether you find additional rewards through sites like EPLTalk or through a group of friends, don’t count on the excitement of the last few weeks of the season to keep you motivated.  Even United fans are bound to lose some level of interest watching each match intently enough for fantasy purposes as their team plays out the string and counts down the weeks until the championship inevitably returns to Old Trafford.

The Schedule

Where we separate the matches that offer fantasy managers real value versus those that just appear to do so.

Real Value

• Chelsea vs. Wigan – Don’t be fooled by Chelsea’s mediocre match against Stoke or Wigan’s holding of Spurs last weekend.  Chelsea aren’t entirely out of the woods yet on Champions League qualifying for next season and Wigan are no match for them at home.
• ManUtd vs. Fulham – The visitors have made a fortress out of Craven Cottage but their exploits on the road haven’t been nearly so noteworthy.  Oh, and United are just exceptional at home.  ‘nuff said.
• Blackpool vs. Arsenal – No, I’m not betting on all of the spoils going to Arsenal so much as this being an open attacking match in both directions where you should consider both sets of attacking players and stay far away from the defenders and ‘keepers.

False Hope

I don’t see a lot of matches that LOOK attractive but aren’t.  What I see are a lot of even match-ups that could go either way.  This shouldn’t dissuade you from taking players in an even match-up.  What it SHOULD do is cause you to choose players who produce week-in and week-out as opposed to occasional contributors whose value improves when the match-up is a strong one for that player’s team.

Forwards

• Chicharito – Assuming Rooney is out suspended, Chicharito should start and return great value.
• SEB – If you went with my advice last weekend, I’d stick with him since it won’t cost you a transfer.
• Gyan – I was much more excited about this picking coming off Gyan’s performance against England and before Sunderland’s stinker against City.  That said, it still makes too much sense to pick against WBA on the road.
• Sturridge – He’s cooled off since his early run of goals for Bolton but you have to like his chances of returning to the scoring column against West Ham’s shameful defense.
• Ba – He has also cooled down a bit but having Vidic mark you will do that.  Look for him to get back to it this weekend even if the Hammers don’t get all three points on the road.

Midfielders

• Downing – He’s been really good recently.  His points come more from assists than goals but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him for both club and country in the last month or so.
• Adam – A bit of a stinker last weekend but who among us thinks Arsenal’s defense is solid enough not to give up a PK and maybe more to Blackpool’s talisman.
• Nani/Valencia – If you have the money, Nani is the guy, if you need a bargain then Valencia is the alternative.
• Adam Johnson – I really don’t like the match-up of City at Anfield but I did really like the way Johnson played last weekend.  Liverpool are much better than Sunderland but they are likely to struggle with wing players since all of their defenders are more central types.
• Walcott – I like Walcott going against a fairly slow Blackpool defense.  His price isn’t bad either which makes him a pretty solid gamble if you’re looking for a midfielder.

Defenders

• Smalling – He didn’t pay off last weekend but he’s still a great bet assuming Rio isn’t going to return to the line-up and it’s hard to imagine that Rio will play twice over a few days after being out so long.
• Luiz – He didn’t pay off last weekend either but he’s got a better match-up this weekend and he’s still high quality for a low price.  These are the kinds of risk-reward propositions we like here at the fantasy blog.
• Kolarov – He DID pay off last weekend and while I don’t like his match-up nearly so well, I don’t see any reason to go away from value for the money.
• R Johnson – Picking Birmingham players on the road seems like it might be a bit of a fool’s errand (insert your own joke here) but this has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring affair.  That could mean lots of yellow cards and just enough goals to make picking a defender here a bad idea but I’m going the other way and suggesting that for the money, Johnson and a Brum clean sheet aren’t a terrible bet.

Goalkeepers

• Hart – I know I said I didn’t love the match-up but Hart has been money all season so certainly stick with him if you already have him.  If you’re buying then might I suggest,
• Friedel – He’s cheap and for some reason I think Villa will show up at home while Newcastle won’t.  If you don’t have the stomach for that choice then maybe,
• Gomes – He’s even cheaper and Spurs do have a solid match-up even if I hate their current momentum but if you’re worried about him then might I suggest…
• Almunia – I really don’t believe in him keeping a clean sheet two weeks in a row but I didn’t believe he’d do it last weekend either and he did.
• Kuszczak – If you’re willing to wait until Friday to see how EvdS’s injury situation is reported, there seems a reasonable chance that his back-up might play this weekend and provide solid value.

Captains

• Chicharito – It is feeling a bit like a United sort of weekend and with Rooney suspended “the pea” seems like the best alternative.
• Nani – If you like your points from midfield then it doesn’t get much more probable than Nani.  He’s been consistent all season and the match-up and home match make him as solid a bet as you’ll find.
• Drogba – I know, I didn’t recommend him above which has mostly to do with his price.  If you can afford him then by all means buy him.  If you have been sticking with him then you should think about captaining him.  What, you thought I was going to go with Torres?

There is frequent talk of fixture congestion in the Premier League and the troubles it causes later in the season. This is especially true of the top players and the top teams. There are lots of matches across a number of competitions for your club and then the strong likelihood that you’ll be playing in meaningful competition for your country or be recalled for a friendly because you’re a big gate attraction to bring in the fans. For fantasy columnists like myself who don’t do this as a fulltime job, there is a similar issue that is even less predictable and it brought me to my intro for this week’s column.

My form of fixture congestion revolves around a combination of family obligations, my day job, and the encroachment of other sports on the amount of free time I have to focus on the Premier League and writing about it. This particular month has been pretty heavy in terms of my commitments between my niece and nephew’s birthdays in Philadelphia on different weekends, a lot of travel and off-site meetings for my job, and the college basketball tournament and start of Major League Soccer in the sports world. The counter-balancing factor has been the fact that the Premier League has played very few matches this month between international dates and the various cup competitions. It has been a welcome respite for me because I would have been running from obligation to obligation and doing nothing well this month if there had been a full EPL schedule in addition to the rest. [Insert your own jokes about how well I do with more time in other months here if you are inclined toward that sort of thing].

The combination of a few streams of thought – fixture congestion, the college basketball tournament, and Major League Baseball Spring Training (pre-season games in either Florida or Arizona for those not familiar) – got me thinking about how the powers-that-be in English football could answer a few long-standing issues. The issues? Fixture congestion, a winter break, the fading prestige of the League Cup, the increasing costs of season ticket costs for working class fans, and adding a 39th match and playing it abroad to give foreign fans a chance to see meaningful matches.

Here’s my solution to both in one fell swoop:

Welcome to League Cup Madness presented by Carling (or someone else with even deeper pockets). The concept is to pack up the six rounds of the Carling Cup into a three week format like the NCAA College Basketball Tournament and take it on the road from approximately January 10th through the end of the month. The tournament would rotate between warm-weather sites proximate to large markets that the Premier League is interested in building – Southern California in the US, Goa/Mumbai in India, Qatar, and somewhere in Southeast Asia that is warm with some serious stadiums. Here are the benefits:

· Season Ticket Value – Fewer undesirable tickets for English supporters to have to purchase;

· Vacation Sales – Excellent warm-weather vacation destinations for supporters who want to make the trip;

· Building International Followings – An opportunity to build local fan bases around matches that matter;

· Revitalization of the League Cup – Building excitement in a lagging property – the League Cup – by compressing the timeframe;

· Condense Fixtures – Eliminate replays because all matches are played on a neutral field;

· New Sponsor Relationships – New opportunities to sell local sponsorships to businesses that want to market to customers in those local markets as opposed to either a worldwide audience or a UK-based audience;

· Better TV Property – Improved rights fees for a consolidated tournament rather than an also-ran tournament as currently constructed;

· A Real Break – Teams that go out early or send younger squads get a nice long break to train, integrate new signings, rest up, etc. – this wouldn’t be true for ALL teams but at least teams could choose how to use the time;

· Cinderella Stories – A lesser known team with one or two “hot” players might create some really big upsets that would boost the value of the property over time;

· Launching Stars – A world-wide audience would have a chance to get to know emerging stars from smaller teams in the lower divisions as they achieve in a bigger forum than the current Carling Cup.

I know that there are potential flaws. The fixtures would be expensive for all but the most well-heeled supporters and there would be fewer “appointment” matches for lower division teams to cash in on with big teams in hallowed venues. Things like travel expenses for smaller teams would also have to be worked out as well so that they wouldn’t be forced to blow their budgets just to participate. That said, more money from a more important and more relevant League Cup competition would solve those issues. Really, what’s the downside in trying something entirely different to save a marginal property that adds little over and above the FA Cup? Foreign audiences would be happier, all but a few players would get a needed winter break, and there would be more revenue for the clubs to share.

OK, back to your regularly scheduled fantasy column.

Schedule
Where we separate the match-ups that provide managers with real value from those that just look like they might provide value and those that don’t even promise that much.

Real Value
· Arsenal vs. Rovers – Arsenal have tended to use International breaks to regroup after a series of poor results. Perhaps getting away from the bad mojo helps. I expect this to be no different especially with key players returning and Rovers struggling mightily down the stretch.

· Spurs @ Wigan – Spurs need to bounce back as well and the fact that Wigan is the opposition should help a lot. I should throw out the caution not to get TOO excited since Spurs have tended to underperform in these situations this season.

· Chelsea @ Stoke – Chelsea seem to be playing significantly better and while Stoke are tough, I don’t see them putting one over on the Blues. I believe in Chelsea’s momentum more than I believe in the home field advantage.

False Hope
· Man United @ WHU – I’m not saying that the Hammers will win but between United’s road struggles, West Ham’s recent form and their desperation to avoid the drop I see this as being less than a bonanza for fantasy managers.

· Man City vs. Sunderland – City SHOULD be in the first category but it feels like they’re coming apart down the stretch between injuries, general unrest, and the sense that it was always a poorly constructed “team.” I’m guessing that Sunderland – the definition of an average team – will make this very competitive.

Forwards
· Suarez – For an Arsenal supporter, I have really fallen hard for this guy and he’s rewarded me for doing so. If you’re already on the bandwagon then stick with it, if not, you’re late and you’d best get a seat before they all fill up.

· SEB – I have a feeling and I’m a bit taken with Wolves’ late season run to stay up. With Doyle injured on international duty Ebanks-Blake should get the start and I like his chances.

· Gyan – Hard not to be swayed by his performance against England in mid-week and his price isn’t that bad either at 7.0.

· Berbatov – Going out on a bit of a limb but with Chicharito having started in midweek in Mexico City you have to guess that he’ll be on the bench for a modest opponent. I’m not predicting a multi-goal match for Berbs but he does tend to pick on bottom-of-the-table opponents.

· RvP – You’ll just have to watch the injury updates – if he’s healthy then he’s a great pick. If not then you should probably be looking toward Arsenal’s midfield.

· Zamora – I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the returning striker who is playing at home against the most generous defense in the league. Zamora will be even more important with Dempsey likely tired from playing in mid-week and then doing the trans-Atlantic commute.

Midfielders
· Nani – So many midfielders to choose from but he’s been the class of the group and there’s no reason to go away from him.

· Adam – Another one that isn’t a surprise at this point but we’ve been on him all season and there’s no indication that he’s letting up regardless of the opposition.

· Hitzlsperger – I like him against the United central midfield if you’re going to take a risk on a player going up against a good team.

· VDV – Another pretty obvious choice but the obvious choices seem to be the ones with the match-ups this weekend as well. No need to get cute at the expense of productivity.

· Lamps – Feels like a PK sort of weekend for Frank.

Defenders
· Luiz – He’s been great and the price isn’t too crazy.

· Kolarov – I’m not thrilled with City’s chances but he’s a great combination of attacking and potential defending points (I’m not implying he’s actually a great defender but that doesn’t matter so much for fantasy does it?).

· Smalling – Another match I’m not thrilled about from a clean sheet standpoint but for the price it is the right pick.

· Enrique – Call this SEB insurance (see above) in case it turns out that a match full of back-up forwards ends up in an ugly nil-nil draw. Enrique represents a cut-rate price to get in on potential clean sheet points.

Goalkeepers
· Cech – If you have money to spend, he’s probably the best bet. Man United have been too unreliable on the road to pay a premium price for EvdS.

· Foster – He gets a lot of points on saves and clean sheets – the only way that a ‘keeper on a bad team is the third most productive in the game. The price makes him a solid bet as does the match-up with a Bolton team minus their creative central midfielder in Stuart Holden.

· Schwarzer – Fulham are tough defensively and even more so at Craven Cottage so I like the value of him at home for 4.7 if you’re looking for a value pick.

Captains
· Suarez – He’s hot and the match-up is a strong one with WBA the second leakiest defense in the league.

· Zamora – I’m liking this pick more and more as I write.

· VDV – I’m seeing a return to the goals as Spurs look to capitalize on City’s flagging form.

Those of you who aren’t long time readers of our blog may not realize that my day job is as a management consultant.  Yes, it’s true. In the real world as well as the fantasy EPL world, I tell people what to do for a living.  The reason I bring this up is because over the course of the last two weeks, I’ve been having a lot of conversations in person and via blog comments, SMS, Facebook, and Twitter about what’s wrong with Arsenal.   I wrote a long post on the blog where I was essentially thinking out loud about some of the possible reasons.  After writing that post and having some good conversations with some pretty smart people on the topic, I decided that I should go back to what I know best and am paid to know about – how to improve organizational performance.

This line of thinking has led me to two conclusions about Arsenal and why they are consistently failing on the big stage while a similarly or perhaps even less talented Manchester United team has been consistently succeeding on similar stages.  The first conclusion is that there is no substitute for defensive excellence.  If you look at the common thread between the Man United and Chelsea Premier League winners since Arsenal last won the title and the better team between the two has generally been the one with the better defense.  As Cech/Carvalho/Terry/Makelele aged they gave way to a superior group of Van Der Sar/Rio/Vidic.  Arsenal’s defenders aren’t bad. In fact they’re probably better-than-average especially once Szczesny took over in net.  The problem is that they aren’t great.

The lack of defensive greatness leads us to the second Arsenal deficiency and that is one that I’m used to looking for in my day job.

That deficiency is the lack of a success rhythm.  Organizations that attempt something complex – and I would definitely call beating Manchester United or Barcelona on their home turf complex – only tend to succeed when they have succeeded at small tasks and built to successively more and more complex activities.  If people have a shared history of success they will tend to rise to the occasion and assume that the next task will go well even if it is a little bit more daunting than the last one.  In this case, Arsenal’s defensive frailties have left them short of the necessary success experiences to be able to pull off the high profile win.

Think about this contrast.  Arsenal turned over nearly their entire title-winning team from the early 2000s at once with Henry, Vieira, Campbell, Cole, Pires, and Ljungberg having very little overlap with the Cesc/RvP edition that has continued to blood more and more youngsters.  At the same time, United STILL hasn’t entirely broken up the team that was challenging Arsenal in those days with Giggs, Scholes and Rio handing the success rhythms to Ronaldo, Rooney, and Vidic who are in turn handing that same blief to Nani, Chicharito, Smalling, Fabio, and Rafael.  The overlap means that Sir Alex doesn’t have be the sole source of the success rhythm.  At Arsenal, Wenger has put himself in a position where he, his style, and the Arsenal logo are the only real links to the shared sense of ability to succeed.  When the going gets tough United’s players can look to some of the most decorated players in the history of English football who believe in the system and the fact that things will go well.  Why? Because they almost always have.  At Arsenal, all they have to look to is the failings that they have all experienced together as they attempt to grow into their collective talent.

Most weeks, Arsenal’s talent and style are enough to knock off those below them in the table.  However, when the moment becomes big, even when the opposition is modest as it was in the Carling Cup, we’ve seen the meltdowns.  If Arsenal want to get to the next level they need to do two things – take their defense to the next level and import one or two been-there-done-that winners who can still play a little, even if it’s just as a 20 minute reserve and occasional spot starter.  And no, Mikael Silvestre doesn’t count.

OK, on to your regularly scheduled fantasy analysis.

Schedule

Real Value – those matches that should improve the demonstrated value of some of the players involved.

• Spurs vs. West Ham – I’m a believer in the Hammers revival but I’m also a believer in the fact that there will be a lot of goals in this one.  Stay away from defenders on both sides but look to load up on the attackers.
• Man United vs. Bolton – United have been incredibly strong at home this season and there’s no reason to expect that it won’t continue – especially if Vidic makes it back from his calf strain.
• Arsenal @ WBA – This match-up didn’t work out so well for the Gunners last time around but WBA were playing much better than and Arsenal will be THRILLED to be facing an opponent that isn’t one of the most celebrated in the history of world football.

Forwards

• Suarez – I completely have a football and fantasy EPL crush on him – I see Robin van Persie but healthier.
• Chicharito – Hard to deny the form he’s in.  The only concern is whether Berbs gets a start at his expense.  If you’re nervous about rotation then Rooney is the choice.
• RvP – A huge surprise that he’s back but he’s been money when he’s played.
• Ba – I’m on the bandwagon in a big way.
• Defoe – He tends to be streaky and his two spectacular goals against Wolves in his last match seems likely to signal his return to the goals.

Midfielders

• Hitzlsperger – A revelation since he returned to health and started playing for WHU.  Think Villa are bummed they gave up on him?  They could really use someone like him right now.
• Meireles – He’s cooled down a bit but he’s easily been the most productive player in Liverpool’s midfield and the presence of Suarez and Carroll should provide more chances for the playmaker.
• Valencia – He’s looked very good since returning to the line-up and he’s a much better bargain that the miraculously healed Nani.  If you have the money you should probably go with Nani though.
• Adam – Rovers seem to be in the process of packing it in – I don’t necessarily believe that Blackpool will win but I like the chances of Adam doing well and likely getting at least a goal on a PK.
• Wilshere – When I’m looking for a bargain I keep thinking this will be the week when he comes good from a fantasy standpoint.

Defenders

• Smalling – Assuming that Rio is still out and Vidic is back as expected then Smalling is exceptional value especially since he’s playing at home.
• Walker – I’ve been impressed by Wolves recent run but away to Villa seems like a strong bet for a home clean sheet and Walker also brings a reasonable chance of some attacking points all for the low-low price of 4.0. Plus, you can only have so many players from Man United.
• Johnson – He’s been exceptional value all year so this pick isn’t exactly news but Birmingham have a better-than-decent shot of a clean sheet on the road even if they are just as likely to be blanked themselves.
• Alcaraz – A Wigan defender? Definitely when you look at Birmingham’s scoring record on the road.

Goalkeepers

• EvdS – Not a great week for keepers and you’re probably out of Man United slots at this point but if you have one left he’s the most solid play.
• Reina – The best of the rest of a mediocre field.
• Al-Habsi – See Alcaraz – I don’t love it but Birmingham have really been wretched scoring on the road (and in general really)
• Foster – Wigan is only slightly better at scoring at home than Birmingham is at scoring on the road.  Can you say nil-nil draw?

Captains

• Suarez – Just a feeling combined with the fact that I know he’ll start.
• Chicharito/Rooney – Whichever you’re most comfortable with based on what you think about SAF’s rotation policies.
• Ba – Did I mention that I really like that Spurs/Hammers match to be a high scoring affair?

As you will come to realize, I tend to start my columns off with something of a rant on whatever topic I see fit each week before diving into the fantasy analysis.

I do this for a few reasons. First, I like mixing it up a bit and thinking a bit more broadly about the Premier League and soccer in general. Second, an abrupt analysis of the upcoming week in fantasy would start looking pretty repetitive. And third, whatever I pick as the topic is generally more likely to rile up readers and get them talking in the comments section – the alternative is people nodding to themselves as they read and then navigating over to the Premier League site to make some adjustments to their team. They may return to the comments section after the matches have been played to, ahem, remind me of where I was wrong and ignore the parts I got right but I prefer to keep the dialog going before during and after the matches.

So before I get to my Fantasy Premier League tips on how to rack up the most number of points this week, divulge me so I can focus on my topic of the week, the title chase.

With Chelsea’s win over United on Tuesday the cries in the headlines were that the race is “wide open” again. I appreciate that the “wide open” sentiment makes for good headlines but clearly they were written before anyone looked at the table and the remaining schedules. Outside of Arsenal, the next closest challengers are City who are 10 points back on an even number of games and Chelsea who are 12 points back with a match in hand. Did I mention that there are only 10 (or in Chelsea and Arsenal’s case 11) matches left in the season?

Here’s a quick breakdown for those who think that anyone other than Arsenal could jump into the title race. United has 10 matches remaining. Of those, five are at home and five are away. Only two or three matches remain against strong competition depending on how you feel about Liverpool going into this weekend.  At Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea are clearly the most difficult matches United will have at least on paper. Looking at that slate, even if United lose all three difficult matches and unexpectedly draw two additional matches against teams they should beat, that gives them 17 additional points for a total of 77. City would have to win 9 of their of their remaining 10 matches to beat that total. Chelsea would have to win 10 of their 11 to eclipse United’s point total and win the title.

So, could United fall on hard times and lower the bar for either City or Chelsea? I suppose it is possible but before supporters of those two teams in blue get too excited, here are the longest streaks of consecutive wins for each team thus far this season: City – 4 consecutive wins in the league; Chelsea – 5 consecutive wins. Oh, and both streaks happened very early in the season. Doesn’t seem likely that both United and Arsenal will fall off a cliff and make this more than a two team race.

Apparently “wide open” just means that Arsenal – who were weren’t far off the pace to start with – got a little bit closer. Apparently I need to take hype (or is that hyperbole?) lessons so I can write better headlines. If you ask me, the headline for the entire season is that just about anything can happen because the supposed “big” teams aren’t as much better than the rest as usual and the relegation strugglers aren’t as bad in comparison to the rest as they usually are. It makes for a fun season but given the lack of dominance by any side, the relative importance of one result even at this late date is probably overstated. Maybe we should just enjoy the fact that it was exceptional entertainment.

On to the upcoming week in fantasy:

Schedule

· Birmingham – with two matches including a home match against struggling WBA and an away match with fellow strugglers Everton, the newly crowned Carling Cup champs are the toast of the fantasy world this week.

· Everton – slightly less attractive given their unpredictable recent form, injuries, and more difficult schedule @NUFC and BRM but two matches is certainly still better than one for select Everton players.

· Chelsea – Chelsea will be riding high and Blackpool will be without Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell – hardly seems fair to make Blackpool’s supporters watch this one.

Forwards

· Zigic – He’s been coming on strong in the second half of the season. Throw in a cheap price (5.3) and modest opposition and you have an attractive proposition.

· Saha – Beckford has scored more recently but if you’re choosing between the two and Saha hasn’t fallen apart between now and the weekend then you’d have to bet on Saha if you’re only choosing one.

· Torres – He has to score one of these weekends doesn’t he? This would seem like an obvious time to break the ice.

· Sturridge – More a “keep” than a buy since he only has one match but worth noting that in the January Transfer Window Goal Derby the tally is Sturridge 4; Suarez 1; Luiz 1; Torres 0; and Carroll 0 but at least Carroll has the excuse that he’s been crocked.

· Ba – I liked him last week and he rewarded me and I’m sticking with him – especially at 5.0

· Balotelli – He seems to be coming around and Wigan seem like the kind of weakling that he’d enjoy torturing.

Midfielders

· Bentley – He hasn’t been as good as I expected but I still like him more than any of the other Birmingham midfielders if that’s what you’re going for. I could be talked into Larsson or Gardner but if you’re asking me – and you are in essence by reading this column – then Bentley is my guy.

· Arteta – With Cahill out of action for the double week, Arteta becomes the next most attractive midfielder from Everton. He’s a bit overpriced but since he gets you two matches, it isn’t that bad a deal.

· Lampard – He isn’t the Lamps of old but he’s still taking PKs for Chelsea and that seems like a good thing to have going for you against Blackpool this weekend.

· Nani – He’s been good enough that you really don’t need to know too much about the match-up to make this decision.

· Dempsey – Quietly the fourth most productive midfielder in the Premier League game and he’s home against Rovers. Not a bad deal for 7.3.

Defenders

· Johnson/Jiranek – Johnson has been very good all season and the price is pretty good but if you need to really economize I’d take Jiranek over Carr who has a tendency to pick up yellow cards like they’re free cash lying on the ground. Watch both for injuries though as neither looked fully healthy coming off of the Cup win on Sunday.

· Baines – Fourth most productive defender in the game and he has two matches – pretty easy choice.

· Coleman – The tenth most productive defender in the game and he didn’t become a regular starter until December. Those are great numbers for someone playing twice at a cost of only 5.2.

· ACole – Great match-up if you’ve already gone through your allotment of Birmingham and Everton players and he’s been incredible productive – remember, this is a fantasy team and you don’t actually have to spend any time with him.

· Kolarov – I’m still a bit disappointed by his production in the Premier League game (he’s much better in the Yahoo! format) but I still like his chances for points at home against Wigan.

Keepers

· Foster – Two matches with a reasonable chance of two clean sheets although they are by no means guaranteed – that said, Foster also tends to get a lot of saves so even if he only gets one clean sheet, his week will look pretty solid. The big caveat here is if Johnson and Jiranek join Dann in being injured. Missing both would mean buying Foster would require a lot of faith in young replacements.

· Cech – Great match-up but you’ll pay for it with Cech. Still, you need players from other teams so this might be where you diversify since Chelsea seem almost guaranteed a clean sheet with Blackpool’s attacking injuries.

· Hart – The match-up is just slightly less attractive than Cech’s and the price just slightly higher which puts Hart third on this list.

· Howard – Despite the two matches, I’ve been suspect of Howard and the Everton defense all season. Baines and Coleman were strong recommendations because they get lots of points going forward but Howard has to be seen as a risk in net even with two matches.

Captains

· Saha – I’m a high risk sort of guy and Saha seems more likely than Zigic to have a huge two-match stretch and that wins him the top spot here.

· Zigic – If you don’t want to live in fear of your captain limping off after 10 minutes of the first match of the double week, then Zigic is a steadier bet to pay off as your captain.

· Balotelli – Same theory as Saha – he seems one of the more likely of the one-gamers to have a hat trick – the downside is that he could just as easily kick a defender in the head and be sent off early.

Editor’s note: The EPL Talk private league in Fantasy Premier League is currently ranked 12th (out of 223,046 private leagues worldwide). If you haven’t updated your team recently, please do so before Saturday morning. In the meantime, here’s thetop 50 players in the EPL Talk private league.

Welcome to a new feature here at EPL Talk. Every Thursday moving forward I’ll be bringing you Fantasy Premier League tips and tricks to help increase your weekly points tally. Before we get down to business, there are some things that it will be important for you, the reader, to know about this column.

The first thing you need to know is that these recommendations are focused on the fantasy game found on the Premier League’s official web site. I know there are lots of other options out there that might be of interest to you but this isn’t my day job so I have to pick my spots and ignore some of the nuances of other games as much as we’d like to be more comprehensive. Why the Premier League game? Because it’s the biggest one and the one that EPL Talk uses to bring its readers together for a private competition. Seems like a solid enough reason to me.

The second thing that you are probably wondering about is why you should listen to me and my recommendations on how to manage your EPL fantasy team. I’m entering my third decade of playing fantasy sports and I’m doing pretty well at it whether it be the Premier League, Major League Soccer, the National Football League, Major League Baseball, or anything else I happen to be challenged to play. In addition to playing more fantasy games than my wife can believe, my blogging partner, Jeremy Spitzberg, and I have been writing on the topic for 7 years here and have attracted a loyal following. Outside of our blog, we were Yahoo UK’s first Premier League Fantasy bloggers as well as having written about Fantasy World Cup for World Soccer Magazine. Credentials aside, we hope you give the column a read – we try to make it entertaining as well as being an informative and useful tool for fantasy managers looking for an edge.

The third thing that likely has you scratching your head is the timing of this first post. Why would you launch this column with the season heading into the home stretch rather than at the beginning of a new season? The first reason is very practical, the opportunity just came up and why wait? The second reason is that this is probably the time of the season that fantasy managers want help the most. Races in private groups are getting tight. Prizes are out there for the taking. Your attention is waning as the season enters its seventh month. A little help from this column may be just what you need to finish in the money – not that we’d endorse putting money on recreational activities like fantasy soccer.

Finally, you should also know a little bit about my biases. Most people in the media try to keep up the façade of being impartial. I don’t believe that’s possible if you grew up loving sports and specific teams so I go for the next best thing and that is full disclosure. I’m an Arsenal supporter and I’m from Philadelphia. What this means is that while I’m hoping for the best from Arsenal, I generally don’t expect it will happen. As such, I probably tend to overvalue players from Man United and be a little more negative toward Arsenal players than they probably deserve. If you’ve spent any time in Philly or know a passionate Philly sports fan, you’ll understand. If you don’t, take my word for it.

OK, enough of the introductions and on to the analysis which will come in six parts (sounds long, I know, but it will go quickly). First an analysis of the schedule and which matches should increase the value of the players on a given team over and above their normal value. The remaining five sections will call out the top players at each position – Forward, Midfielder, Defender, and Goalkeeper – and then finally the top candidates to be your captain. And with the prologue behind us, away we go:

Schedule
· Man United – The Red Devils have two matches this match week thanks to Chelsea’s loss to Everton in the FA Cup. While both are on the road – not a strong suit for United this season – and one is with Chelsea, you still have to favor players who have two matches in a week over those with only one.

· Man City – The other side of Manchester features a home match with Fulham. The Cottagers have been on the rise recently but I suspect this will be a splash of cold water to the face as City look to solidify the three spot in the table.

· Stoke – West Brom have been fading into the sunset and Stoke should enjoy the comforts of home in this one.

Forwards
· Rooney/Berbatov – Assuming you can’t afford (or spend the transfers) on both, the choice is a difficult one. Between fixture congestion, rotation, and form this has been one of the most difficult choices of the season. Since Berbs has been shy about scoring on the road and tends to get rotated more, I’m going to suggest you go with Rooney.

· Tevez – Sometimes these things aren’t very difficult. He’s at home, he’s scoring freely, and the opposition isn’t imposing.

· Doyle – With Blackpool the opposition, you know Wolves are going to score at least one at home and maybe more (whether that will be enough for a home win is another story entirely). Doyle is a solid bet to be the man doing it.

· Campbell – The other side of Blackpool conceding a lot of goals is that they tend to score in bunches as well. Adam’s suspension might slow that down a bit but I still believe this will be an open match and Campbell is great value if you need a cheap player.

· Carew – The big man has been rejuvenated since his move away from Villa and a home match against porous West Brom is just the thing to keep that momentum going with goals.

Midfielders
· Nani – A bit of a no-brainer between his consistently strong performances and United’s two matches. A must-have.

· Meireles – The match-up (@WHU) is solid and he’s been on fire for Liverpool. Great value still at 7.2.

· Toure – Silva is the better player in the real world but in this format Yaya has been more productive and as a bonus, he’s also less expensive than his Spanish teammate.

· O’Hara – We at the blog have a soft spot for Jamie O’Hara and we have particularly enjoyed his return to first team football with the move to Wolves. And again, we like the match-up with Blackpool to have a lot of goals in it.

· Barton – We probably wouldn’t want him on our real life team but that’s why they call it fantasy. For our purposes he’s home, inexpensive, and he’s been extremely productive.

Defenders
· Vidic – Like Nani, a no-brainer as the most productive at his position, essentially an evergreen in the line-up and having two matches.

· Evra – Similar logic to Vidic but he hasn’t been as productive over the course of the season. Still, I’ll take two of his matches vs. one of just about anyone else’s.

· Kolarov – Not as effective in this format as in others but he’s been pushing up the field and attacking almost exclusively which certainly helps his value.

· Walker – Another “defender” who in reality does little more than attack. He’s cheap and has a solid return from the matches he’s played so far since moving over to Villa.

· Kelly – The third in our series of “defenders who mostly attack” – I’m not sure how I feel about the away match for a defender but he’s inexpensive, has the potential for a clean sheet, and gets forward for assists. All-in-all a solid combinations.

Goalkeepers
· van der Sar – Another no-brainer given the two matches but he is pretty expensive, you can only use so many United players and he hasn’t been THAT productive this season so while he is the logical choice, you may want to think twice.

· Hart – Expensive but he’s been worth it all season and the match-up is one that makes you feel good about a clean sheet.

· Friedel – I don’t expect attacking fireworks from Rovers on the road which makes Big Brad a solid investment at a reasonable price playing at home. Not the strongest endorsement ever but a solid third choice if you don’t have the money for Hart or EvdS.

Top Three Choices for Captain
· Nani – Easy choice.

· Berbatov – If you’re daring and think this is one of those weekends when he busts out and scores 3 or 4 in a match. The downside is he could be rotated for one and do nothing in the other.

· Campbell – Just a gut feeling with no real basis to it. Plus, I don’t think many people will get to the third spot on this list without already having chosen their man so there’s little risk in me putting an out-of-left-field recommendation in this spot.

I hope you enjoyed the maiden voyage of this column on EPL Talk. Please comment whether you like what you’ve read or don’t think much of it – I’m a big boy, I’ve heard it all but I do read the comments and attempt to make adjustments where good suggestions are made.

If Fox Soccer Channel loses out on the TV rights deal, FSC should make a play for Man United TV, Chelsea TV, Arsenal TV, or Liverpool TV and whatever programming they offer in England. From what I understand they offer replays of games 48 hours after they happen along with a propaganda news program show, classic games, and youth games. Would it make sense for a FSC to go after 2 of the teams rights for their re-airs where they can play them on Tuesday and Wednesday Night, get the filler of classic games, along with youth team games which would be fun to watch if you want to see guys work their way up the reserve team? I could see it as a viable option.

I could see a club love to get as much publicity as possible on a channel like FSC which is in more households than Setanta and/or GOL TV over here in the States. I really think the best that FSC can hope for is the 12pm Saturday Game and either the 2nd or 3rd choice 10am game on Saturday if ESPN is serious about getting the rights to the Prem. With the American influence of ownership groups of Liverpool, United, Villa, as well what ownership Kroenke has in Arsenal they have realize that FSC does reach soccer fans and could use the Club TV shows as a way to push their club/brand in America.

FSC hasn’t shied away from airing Milan TV before and currently air Barca games on delay. I think in a perfect world United would be one of the clubs they would focus on since they just seem to be most friendly with their current and past success to target. I know that they are on Setanta now but I wonder if the money saved on getting all of the packages that FSC before could be used to prise United’s TV shows from Setanta giving the the club more exposure here in the States.

Myself, I am hoping that ESPN2 ends up with the Premier League rights to the 7:45am ET game and the 1st choice game on Saturdays at 10am ET along with the double header on Sunday and Monday Games with FSC getting the 2nd choice game on Saturday and the noon ET kick off here in the States.